Worry about the country, Starmer, not nationalist discontent
Labour faces an unenviable position in Scotland; stand with the Tories and deny a second referendum, or greenlight another referendum and risk losing the Union. However, no further does one have to look to see the plight of Labour than Starmer himself who, is torn between his statement in January to support a second referendum in the event of a large SNP majority in next year’s Scottish Parliament elections and his position in September where, in his interview with Andrew Marr on the 20th, managed to just about weasel out of publicly committing to a second referendum.
Whatever side Starmer chooses, one thing is for certain; the world of January 2020 is vastly different to the world of October 2020. Yes, Sturgeon could argue she has a mandate if she wins a huge majority in next year’s elections. However, it is still the prerogative of the Prime Minister to grant a section 30 order and Starmer, Johnson or whoever is in №10 by next May, can reject granting one for one simple and very good reason; if there is a “Yes” vote, the rUK’s political capacity would be submerged, for at least half a decade as Brexit has done, in untangling Scotland and England’s 300-year marriage.
This would have been a stomach-churning feat in 2014, during relative normality, but in the middle of a pandemic, with local economies across the UK on their knees due to lockdown restrictions, consuming both the national and Scottish governments over the splitting of the United Kingdom during such a domestic health and economic crisis would not only be disastrous, be unbelievably irresponsible. In fact, it could be viewed as unforgivable to the people of England and Wales, who would have no say over when a second referendum would or should be granted to hold such a referendum in a time of such economic calamity.
Sturgeon’s relentless drive for independence may be awe-inspiring for ardent remainers south of the border, who are equally loathsome of Boris Johnson and emotionally homeless in Brexit Britain. But this pro-European, Anglo-Scottish coalition which gave the heaps of praise to Sturgeon for her presentation of handling the lockdown crisis, hides a sinister selfishness on her part, for not regarding the consequences of separation for those living south of the border during this hard time. Even if Scotland became independent, someone will still be the Prime Minister of England, Wales and Northern Ireland and it seems difficult to forsee, how detailed and complicated negotiations around possible border checks between England and Scotland, can be undertaken whilst simultaneously rebuilding the hard-hit regional economies from lockdown restrictions.
This may seem like a Anglo-centric position to take, but a stern finger, ordering “patience” to the SNP, from a united Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat front, would surely clip the wings of Sturgeon, and restore some legitimacy to the Unionist cause if a vote could be held off until calmer economic conditions could be reached. Traditionally, support for Scottish Nationalism rises in times of economic or political hardship in the UK and historically this has been he 1970s, early 1990s and the 2010s. A politcally and economically calmer UK, settled into a Brexit deal, has a far greater chance than winning a second independence vote than one bogged down in Brexit and the calamity of handling England’s public health crisis.
Starmer and Johnson must hold firm. A referendum with the plausible risk of a separation vote is not in the interest of anyone on this island in this current moment. Granted, blocking a second vote would likely increase the bitterness between Scotland and England. Although, with such fraught negotiations Scotland would face on its way out of the Union in an event of a “yes” vote, a further deterioration in Anglo- Scot relations sadly seems unavoidable in a No vote, Yes vote, or no vote at all.
